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The latest information about Theta Research.

Gary D. Halbert - Are the Markets Due for a Correction?

As you may know, Gary D. Halbert is the owner of Halbert Wealth Management and Theta Research. You may not know, however, that Gary has been writing his Forecasts & Trends Newsletter, (now in e-letter format) for over 30 years. During that time, Gary has shared his keen insights on economic, market and even political events that can and do affect your pocketbook.

With the market reaching new record highs on a regular basis, investors are reasonably concerned about how long the current bull market rally can last. Just as in the late 1990s and then again in the mid 2000s, there is no shortage of “experts” offering opinions on the answer to that question. Unfortunately, many of these opinions come from sources that do not have the depth of knowledge and experience that Gary brings to the table.

As Theta’s owner, Gary is convinced of the viability of active management strategies and their potential to reduce portfolio risk. In today’s Theta News blog, Gary will comment on the uncertainty in the market and how the strategies tracked by the Theta Research database can help chart a course for investors who are wondering if it is really different this time around.

Note that if you like what you see in Gary’s writing, we’ll provide a link for you to sign up for Gary’s e-letter, free of charge, at the end of Gary’s article.

All the best,

Mike

Are the Markets Due for a Correction? What to Do in an Uncertain World

After the election of Donald Trump as President, the markets surged and continued to increase after he was sworn into office. In the Spring, however, the market rally took a breather as it became more evident that neither the repeal and replacement of Obamacare nor tax cuts nor infrastructure spending will be a cakewalk for the Republicans.

In addition, interest rates are going up. Add to that the foreign policy crisis with Russia and Syria, and rapidly escalating tensions with North Korea.

Uncertain man The stress on the stock and bond markets is increasing quickly and many are worried about the possibility of an imminent downward correction (or worse), especially since we haven’t had a major correction in many years.

What happens in the coming months is far from certain and many investors are very nervous. Wouldn’t it be nice to have some strategies in your portfolio that are not highly correlated to the stock and bond markets, just in case the worst happens? Fortunately, there are some options I’ll share with you today. But first, let’s look at the increasing risks the markets are currently facing.

Reality of Governing Sets In

One of President Trump and the Republicans’ big promises was the repeal and replacement of Obamacare. As we all know, their attempts to do so have failed miserably. It’s very possible they will not be able to come together and agree on an alternative approach. So what does that mean for the economy?

Many analysts agree Obamacare will eventually implode if nothing is done to fix it. Healthcare is a big part of the economy, and a failure of this magnitude could have a significant impact on the markets.

In addition, perhaps one of the biggest reasons for the stock market’s surge since Trump’s election is the promised cuts to corporate and individual tax rates. Keep in mind that part of the reason the GOP started with the repeal and replacement of Obamacare is that they were planning to use some of the savings from their healthcare changes to help pay for the tax cuts. With no such savings now available, it will make passing tax cuts even more difficult.

Republican leaders had hoped to have tax cuts finished by August. Now many are saying that’s just not realistic anymore. It could be the fall or even later before anything is done on this. Republicans disagree on a number of things, including the size of the cuts, how to pay for them and some more controversial proposals like the Border Adjustment Tax.

US Leaders The future of the infrastructure spending bill is also uncertain. This would pump billions into the economy on so-called “shovel ready projects.” It remains to be seen though if the Republicans can come up with something that can pass both Houses of Congress.

These promises are a big part of the reason for the market’s surge after Trump was elected. Failure to accomplish any of these could impact the markets in a negative way.

Interest Rates Are Going Up

In December and then again in March, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. They also indicated they plan to have at least two more rate hikes this year, and potentially three next year. Rising interest rates increase the costs for companies to borrow money. Many existing loans are tied to the LIBOR so when rates increase, so do the costs for companies to service their debt.

Furthermore, the Fed recently warned about weakening credit demand and tightening lending standards, which will make it more difficult to get a loan. Companies often depend on loans to fund expansion projects. When the availability of credit declines, it is usually not good for the stock and bond markets.

And let’s not forget that the US has a $20 trillion national debt. When interest rates go up, so does the cost to service this debt. This makes even less money available for government spending projects.

Hotspots Around the Globe

In addition, there are a number of global hotspots that could weigh on the markets. The limited US strike on Syria has caused concerns over escalating US military involvement in Syria and elsewhere. It has also put a big strain on US-Russia relations, which were already at a low-point. Any type of direct US and Russian military conflict could have a very negative impact on the markets.

It could also weigh heavily on the energy markets. Conflicts in the Middle East often push energy prices higher. And don’t forget Russia has vast energy resources. Rising energy prices often are not good for the markets.

Kim North Korea is also a major hotspot, given that they have a nuclear weapons arsenal and a nutty leader who might just be crazy enough to use them. Any confrontation between the US and North Korea could escalate very quickly, and the result could be very negative for the stock and bond markets.

Add to that the strain it would put on US-China relations, which would likely impact trade. President Trump has sharply criticized China for unfair trade practices, and any problems between the US and China, especially with growing tensions with North Korea, could lead to a trade war with negative global implications. Remember China has the second largest economy in the world.

Are We Past Due for a Correction?

The US has just completed its eighth consecutive year of economic growth. For reference, the average post-World War II recovery period averaged just 61 months, roughly five years. Private jobs have grown for 85 consecutive months. The markets recently reached all-time highs. The last really significant market correction was during the 2007-2009 time-frame.

Many believe the markets are past due for a correction. This recovery is getting long in the tooth, so it may not take much for it to turn lower, perhaps significantly. Remember, the S&P 500 lost over 50% from 2007-2009.

When the markets are at or near to all-time highs, and there is a great deal of uncertainty, they can be more susceptible to negative news or events. It often doesn’t take much to cause a big move in one direction or the other.

Most everyone reading this understands how important it is to diversify your investment portfolio. With the fate of Obamacare and tax cuts unclear, interest rates rising, tensions increasing around the world and the stock markets at or near all-time highs, there is a great deal of uncertainty in 2017. This makes diversification even more important.

Yet proper diversification today requires more than a passive buy-and-hold allocation to stocks and bonds, since they can both suffer when markets drop. It requires alternative investments that are not highly correlated to the stock and bond markets, ones that can potentially do well even if the markets drop. And if the markets keep going up, you want strategies that can still prosper.

So what’s an investor to do?

Investors Need Options and Theta Research Has Them

Throughout my career in the investment business, I have always been impressed with the need to manage risks by including non-correlated assets. That’s why in 2012, I jumped at the opportunity to acquire Theta Research from my friend and colleague, Paul Montgomery.

In a nutshell, Theta Research tracks the actual performance of separate managed accounts traded by Investment Managers who employ tactical strategies. These model-based strategies are often based on quantitative methods designed to actively position portfolio assets where they can avoid much of the damage caused by a market correction. Some models even use inverse funds to “short” the markets during periods of high volatility.

Once these actual returns have been documented, Theta Research also provides subscription services so that both individual investors and professionals can analyze and evaluate each manager’s performance. My RIA firm, Halbert Wealth Management, had been a Theta Research subscriber since its inception back in 1999. It not only serves as an important analytical resource for our due diligence efforts, but also as an important source of actively managed investment strategies that employ systematic trading models.

Using Theta’s Professional Subscription, Advisors can produce detailed ranking reports over a wide range of time windows, allowing you to determine how the strategies performed in past market environments. The best part, however, is that every performance number published by Theta is based on the actual performance of a representative account. Theta publishes no backtested or other hypothetical performance information.

Learn More About Theta’s Database of Actively Managed Investment Strategies

Follow the link to learn more about Theta Research subscriptions and how you can use this resource to access top active Investment Managers. While there, you’ll even be able to run through a Demo of the system to better evaluate its functionality and capabilities. (Note that the Demo site does not have live data, but rather example returns you can use to evaluate the site.)

By subscribing to Theta, you have access to a growing list of active investment managers, each with verified actual track records. In these days of market uncertainty, it’s important to know which managed accounts can both talk the talk and walk the walk of tactical model-based investment management.

The active strategies tracked by Theta have the potential to do well, even if the markets drop. They also have the potential to do well if the markets continue to rise. Plus, they are often not highly correlated to the stock and bond markets and can help you diversify your portfolio away from traditional stocks and bonds. (Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.)

If you have any questions or want to learn more about Theta Research, call Theta’s Marketing Director, Mike Posey at (512) 826-5553 or send him an e-mail at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

If you are worried that the stock markets are in nosebleed territory, and that the Fed is now seriously committed to raising interest rates significantly, you owe it to yourself to at least check out the active investment strategies tracked on Theta’s database.

Thank you for your continued confidence,

Gary D. Halbert

Gary

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

Like what you see? You can get your own free subscription to Gary Halbert’s Forecasts and Trends E-Letter. See the F&T website for details.
Posted by MPosey on 07/18 at 04:13 PM in Company News • (0) CommentsPermalink

Happy Anniversary to Theta, Plus More New Strategies

Theta is pleased to announce four new additions to our list of tracked models. As usual, some of these strategies come from existing Theta Managers while others have been submitted by Managers new to the Theta database. Before discussing the new programs, however, a “Happy Anniversary” wish is in order.

Theta Research – Five Years and Going Strong

It seems hard to believe but this year marks the fifth anniversary of Theta Research being under the current ownership of Gary and Debi Halbert. Established in 1999 by Roger Schreiner and Paul Montgomery, and later owned solely by Montgomery, Theta Research was acquired by the Halberts in 2012, so 2017 marks Theta’s fifth year under its new ownership.

The Halberts are familiar figures in the wealth management industry, having pioneered public futures funds in the 1980s and 1990s. In 1996, Halbert Wealth Management (HWM), a Registered Investment Advisor firm was established by the Halberts and is where the relationship with Theta Research began.

As an RIA, HWM knew that it is often difficult to find active Investment Managers among the thousands listed on various databases. Even more frustrating was the fact that performance figures in many of these databases are not independently verified. Instead, they rely on self-reporting, backtesting and other hypothetical gimmicks to show what a strategy’s performance might have been, not what it actually returned.

HWM used the actual performance on Theta’s database as a resource to find and evaluate Investment Managers who employ tactical strategies to enhance performance, manage risks, or both. Knowing that an Investment Manager’s actual performance had been third-party verified provided a big head start in HWM’s due diligence process.

Upon hearing that Paul Montgomery planned to retire, the Halberts jumped at the chance to continue the valuable service Theta offers. The acquisition was completed in 2012.

Mike Posey was chosen as Marketing Director of the new Theta while Henry Rohlfs was named its Technical Director. Together, they have expanded the range of services offered, enhanced Theta’s capabilities and grown in the number of subscribers and investment strategies being tracked.

While much of the first five years of ownership has been dedicated to rebuilding the database and enhancing the software, we’re excited about the future. For Theta’s clients, it’s good to know that a valuable resource like Theta Research is still independently tracking the actual performance of Investment Managers and making the information available to those seeking actively managed investment strategies.

Now, let’s explore some of the strategies that have most recently been added to Theta’s database:

Models Added by Existing Investment Managers on Theta:

Ted Lundgren, principal of Hg Capital Advisors in Houston, Texas is an existing Theta Manager. Ted has recently established tracking of his Behavioral Diversification strategy, a multi-manager approach. Theta has tracked and independently verified the actual performance of this model back to its inception of January 1, 2014.

Existing Investment Manager, Christian J. Cyr, CPA, MBA, and Founder of Cyr Financial Wealth Advisors has established a new tracking account named the Dynamax 2X Strategy. As its name suggests, the Dynamax 2X strategy is a leveraged version of Cyr’s Dynamax 1X Strategy, which is also being tracked. Theta Research has independently documented and verified the track record of this model back to March 1, 2016.

New Investment Managers Added to the Theta Database:

Paul Glance, PhD, is founder and president of Glance Financial Advisors, LLC in Troy, MI, and a new Manager to Theta Research. Along with his son, Brian, Paul has established a tracking account for his Glance USO Strategy, a quantitative long/short energy sector strategy. Theta Research has independently verified the track record of this trading model back to January 1, 2017.

Alpha Retirement Wealth in Gold River, CA is another one of our newest Investment Managers. Co-Founders Colbey Philbin and Matt Curtis have submitted their US RPI A+ Strategy, which is invested according to the US Risk Parity A+ Index, created by Mr. Philbin. Theta Research has independently documented and verified the track record of this model back to its inception date of January 1, 2016.

Posted by MPosey on 06/01 at 02:56 PM in Company News • (0) CommentsPermalink

NAAIM Shark Tank Results and a New Tracked Strategy

NAAIM Announces Winner of “Shark Tank” Competition

The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) has announced the winner of its annual “Shark Tank” competition, held during its Uncommon Knowledge Conference in San Diego, CA. Since 2013, this unique challenge has allowed NAAIM Members to gain exposure to innovative ideas employing active management strategies, possibly leading to new business relationships.

Theta Research is pleased to announce the 2017 Shark Tank Competition winner is Mr. Rich Paul of Potomac Advisors, Inc. Rich won the competition with his EVO 1 Strategy, a long, inverse or cash tactical model using the Guggenheim/Rydex family of mutual funds. The EVO 1 Strategy’s actual track record has been independently verified by Theta Research back to its original inception date of June 1, 2002.

As we have noted in the past, Investment Managers competing in NAAIM’s Shark Tank competition receive exposure to a room full of Advisors, many of which are seeking viable sub-advisory relationships. It’s an opportunity to describe the Manager’s investment approach to the markets answer questions posed by an audience of seasoned professionals.

Theta Research has actively supported Shark Tank and has served on the NAAIM Shark Tank Committee since its inception. In fact, all previous Shark Tank winners currently have at least one strategy being tracked by Theta. To learn more about Potomac Advisors and the EVO1 Strategy, see your Theta subscription or, if you are not yet a subscriber, contact Rich and request a Theta “Guest Pass” to review his performance.

Theta Adds Another New Strategy

Ted Lundgren, Principal of Hg Capital Advisors, LLC in Houston, Texas has announced the addition of the Behavioral Diversification strategy to its models being tracked. This strategy uses proprietary algorithms to allocate among multiple tactical strategies. Theta has tracked and independently verified the actual performance of this model back to its inception of January 1, 2014.

Posted by MPosey on 05/15 at 03:44 PM in Company News • (0) CommentsPermalink

Theta Announces More Tracked Strategies

Theta is pleased to announce five new additions to our list of tracked models. Two of these strategies come from one Investment Manager new to Theta and three have been submitted by Managers who already have active tracking accounts on the Theta database. With that being said, I think it would be beneficial to provide a brief analysis of why multiple strategies from a single Manager is significant.

The development of active investment management strategies is no small feat. Financial professionals who develop quantitative formulas and trading systems must not only have a keen sense of the interrelationships inherent in the markets, they must also they must also be students of investor behavior, especially during periods of extreme highs and lows in the markets.

Most of all, however, active managers must have an abiding belief in the ability to maximize gains and/or minimize losses over and above what is available in a passive, buy-and-hold portfolio. Theta Research is built upon the idea that risk management is an attainable goal as evidenced by the actual performance of real-time trading accounts tracked in the Theta database.

Since there is no single “Holy Grail” active investment strategy out there, most active managers build multiple systems designed to address one or more facet of the market, such as trading a specific asset class, moving to cash in down markets, or even long/short strategies based on one of the major stock market indices, etc. These systems also often include complex algorithms that incorporate trend following, rotational, mean reversion, momentum, technical analysis and a myriad of other techniques.

In some cases, Managers combine their strategies with others of their own, or even of other Investment Managers to illustrate a composite portfolio. In this way, Managers can leverage their own knowledge and expertise with that of other sophisticated professionals. Theta Research makes it easy to illustrate such a composite portfolio as part of our Professional Subscription. Give us a call to learn more about this subscription feature.

Now, let’s explore some of the strategies that have most recently been tracked by Theta:

Models Added by Existing Investment Managers on Theta:

Werner Keller, CFA of Keller Partners in Channel Islands, CA is an existing Theta Manager. Werner has recently established tracking of his Active Mega-Cap Strategy. While the Mega-Cap Strategy is new to us, it’s not a new concept. Theta has tracked and independently verified the actual performance of this model back to its inception of October 1, 2012.

Another current Theta Investment Manager, David Daughtery, CFA, CFP, founder of Copperwynd Financial, LLC has added two new strategies. The Total Return Income Model began actual trading on April 1, 2015 while the Rotational Strategy began actual trading on December 1, 2014. Theta Research has independently verified the actual performance of these strategies back to their respective inception dates.

New Investment Manager Added to the Theta Database:

Our most recent Investment Manager addition is Christian J. Cyr, CPA, MBA, Founder of Cyr Financial Wealth Advisors. Chris has established tracking accounts for two strategies – Dynamax 1X and Dynamax Low Volatility. Theta Research has independently documented and verified the track records of these two models back to their common inception date of January 1, 2016.

Posted by MPosey on 04/25 at 10:58 AM in Company News • (0) CommentsPermalink

Theta at Dallas MTA, More New Active Strategies and 10 Reasons to Subscribe

Theta is Featured at the Dallas Texas Chapter of the Market Technicians Association (MTA)

Mike Posey, Theta Research’s Marketing Director, was recently the featured speaker at the Dallas MTA Chapter meeting. Like his previous presentations to other MTA Chapters, Mike shared his experienced-based insight on the due diligence process. Mike’s goal is to highlight business concerns once the heavy lifting of creating a trading model is done.

The presentation was primarily educational in nature with a focus on why it is important for Investment Managers to have a track record made up of actual, verified returns. Mike also discussed the inherent limitations of backtesting from a due diligence standpoint and why it’s especially important for early-stage Managers to document their performance in real-time trading.

Mike’s comments about his experience in the due diligence field closely follow those expressed in his white paper – The Importance of Actual Returns in the Due Diligence Process, a copy of which is available free of charge from Theta Research.

Existing Managers Post New Tracking Accounts

Theta Research is proud to announce the addition of two new active strategies from Investment Managers who already have programs being tracked. First, Brian Boughner, CFA, CMT, co-founder of Parallel Financial Partners has initiated tracking of a new strategy. The Parallel High Beta strategy is managed by Chief Investment Officer, Greg Towner, CFA, CMT and trades at Charles Schwab. Theta Research began tracking this new strategy as of its inception date of January 31, 2017.

Next, David Daughtrey, CFA, CFP and principal of Copperwynd Financial has added a new volatility based strategy. The Copperwynd Long/Short VIX strategy trades at TD Ameritrade where Theta has verified its actual performance back to the original inception date of January 1, 2016.

Why You Should be a Theta Subscriber

We at Theta Research take great satisfaction in building a database of investment strategies based on tactical and quantitative models. If you haven’t yet subscribed to Theta’ database of active investment managers, here are ten excellent reasons why you should consider doing so:

1. Access to Investment Managers You May Not Find Elsewhere

2. Focus on Active Strategies

3. Ground Floor Opportunities

4. Two Levels of Subscription to Choose From (see thetaresearch.com)

5. Constantly Growing List of Managers

6. Verified Performance Net of All Fees and Costs

7. Online Analytics Allow You to Rank and Evaluate Performance

8. In Some Cases, Ability to Reconstruct Historical Track Records

9. Guest Pass Feature Allows One-on-One Contact with Managers

10. Inexpensive and Easy to Subscribe

Just how inexpensive are Theta Subscriptions? Our most comprehensive Professional Subscription is $295 per year while our scaled down Basic Subscription is only $195 per year. If you are a member of NAAIM or the MTA, annual subscription prices go even lower.

To learn more, go to the subscription section of our website at thetaresearch.com/pricing_page and check out the various options. If you have questions, contact Mike Posey at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or (512) 628-5201, Option #1.

Posted by MPosey on 04/11 at 03:54 PM in Company News • (0) CommentsPermalink

Deadline Approaching for a Unique Opportunity

The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) has issued a renewed call for competitors for its “Shark Tank” competition. Since 2013, this unique challenge has allowed NAAIM Members to gain exposure to new ideas employing active management strategies, possibly leading to new business relationships.

However, to participate in this year’s Shark Tank Competition, your video presentation must be submitted by February 17th.

For Investment Managers who employ active strategies, competing in NAAIM’s Shark Tank competition provides exposure to a room full of Advisors, many of which are seeking viable sub-advisory relationships. It’s an opportunity to describe your investment approach to the markets in your own words and answer questions posed by a panel of seasoned professionals.

The opportunity to present your active strategy to other Advisors representing literally billions of dollars of client assets doesn’t come around every day. The NAAIM Shark Tank could provide the exposure necessary to take your business to the next level.

To learn more about the Shark Tank Competition and how to apply to compete in this year’s contest download the Shark Tank Rules and Application. For more information about the NAAIM organization, see the NAAIM website home page at http://www.naaim.org.

We hope to see you at the upcoming NAAIM Conference!

Posted by MPosey on 02/16 at 12:23 PM in Company NewsIndustry News • (0) CommentsPermalink

The New Year Brings New Strategies to Theta Research, With More on the Way

2017 promises to be an interesting year in the markets. What with a new president, expected rate hikes by the Fed and a host of international challenges, an environment of uncertainty may be an understatement for the year ahead. Fortunately, the active management strategies of Theta’s Investment Managers offer the potential to navigate whatever market environment presents itself.

Theta Research is pleased to announce the addition of three more actively managed strategies seeking third-party track record verification. These strategies come from an existing Investment Manager as well as a former Manager who has initiated tracking of a new strategy. Included in that number are the following:

Models Added by an Existing Investment Manager on Theta:

Dr. George Paul Distefano, founder and Portfolio Manager of MIPS Timing Systems, LLC in Houston, Texas has added two new strategies. First is the MIPS/HiYld program, a trend-following approach to high-yield bond funds. Theta Research has independently verified the MIPS/HiYld actual performance back to its inception date of 12/01/2015. Dr. Distefano has also announced the addition of the MIPS33.33 strategy, which is a blend of 65% MIPS 3 and 35% MIPS Nitro strategies. The composite performance of MIPS33.33 has been verified back to the common inception date in September of 2013.

A New Active Model from a Former Investment Manager

Daniel Turov, founder of Turov Investment Group in San Diego, California formerly had active strategy models tracked by Theta. He has now initiated tracking of a new strategy called QIP, short for Qualified Investor Program. QIP is designed to be a non-annuity version of Turov’s sector strategy. Theta began tracking of this new strategy as of its inception date of January 1, 2017.

Stay Tuned – More New Strategies are on Their Way

One of the benefits of the Theta Research database of actual performance is that it is not a static list of the same old names and numbers. Instead, Theta has a number of new strategies in various stages of completion which will join the database of active Investment Managers in the near future. So, be on the lookout for our Theta News notices as they may contain just the Investment Manager you’re looking for.

Posted by MPosey on 01/12 at 03:22 PM in Company News • (0) CommentsPermalink

Theta Announces the Addition of “Ground-Floor” Opportunities

While Theta Research is well known for its ability to verify historical track records generated by established Investment Managers, we are also often called upon to track brand-new strategies, what you might call “ground-floor opportunities.”

In today’s Theta News, we have a variety of such opportunities, both from an existing Theta Manager as well as those new to Theta’s tracking database. As you review these new strategies, keep the following in mind:

  1. New strategies don’t necessarily mean an inexperienced manager. Experienced Managers often developnew strategies. In addition, even Managers who may not have been trading a long time often have prior experience that gives them a fresh approach to the market;
  2. New investment strategies developed by veteran Managers allow you to take advantage of the Manager’s knowledge base and trading experience. It also allows you to review the Manager’s other strategies and their track records, which are often also tracked by Theta Research;
  3. New strategies have not been developed in a vacuum. Most have been subjected to extensive backtesting. While we all know that backtesting has its limits and can’t guarantee future results, it’s all that Managers have to demonstrate new concepts until they build up an actual track record;
  4. While there are obviously no guarantees, getting in on a ground-floor opportunity may lead to superior performance. We have all noticed that some Managers produce their best returns in the early years of their existence. There are a lot of reasons this may occur, but just because a strategy is new doesn’t mean it doesn’t have merit; and
  5. Being tracked by Theta shows the Manager has confidence. Since Theta charges a fee for its actual performance tracking service, Managers with new strategies who are willing to pay to be tracked show that they have confidence in their strategies.

As you review the information below about the ground-floor opportunities on Theta, remember that strategy names and data do not show up on the Theta database until after they have at least three months of actual trading history.

Ground-Floor Opportunities for Your Review

Veteran Theta Manager, Len Fox, founder of Scarecrow Trading, Inc. in Savage, MN has initiated tracking on two new Rydex-based strategies called NAAIM Indicator Wall 1X and NAAIM Indicator Wall 2X. These strategies seek to capture the actual performance of the proprietary “Indicator Wall” sponsored by the National Association of Active Investment Managers (“NAAIM”). While NAAIM has been publishing the Indicator Wall only to its members for 18 months or so, this is the first time it will be traded in a real-money trading account for tracking purposes.

Theta Research began tracking both Indicator Wall strategies as of the inception date of trading on November 28, 2016.

Charles R. (Randy) Snook, CFP, CLU, ChFC, CLTC, founder of Snook Asset Management, Inc. of Cedar Rapids, IA is pleased to announce the tracking of five new strategies, all of which are part of his Dynamic Asset Rebalancing (DARe™) series. The names and custodian of each model is as follows:

DARe Rydex Sector - traded at Guggenheim/Rydex Funds

DARe Rydex Pure Style – traded at Guggenheim Rydex Funds

DARe Rydex Pure Style / Inverse Index also traded at Guggenheim Rydex Funds

DARe International Country ETF – traded at Pershing

DARe Bond Sector Long/Short – traded at Pershing

The DARe Rydex-based strategies will be tracked on a daily basis while those traded at Pershing will be tracked monthly. Theta began trading these new strategies as of their inception dates in November and December of 2016.

Another New Investment Manager Joins the Theta Database

New Investment Manager, Michael Choniski, founder and Managing Director of Trendhaven Investment Management, LLC of Brookfield, CT has initiated tracking of his Trendhaven Managed Risk strategy. This strategy has the benefit of an existing track record of actual performance which Theta has independently verified back to its original inception date of April of 2014.

Posted by MPosey on 12/07 at 03:38 PM in Company News • (0) CommentsPermalink

Check Out Theta’s Newest Manager Additions

Guest Pass Activity Increases After Election

It’s been a busy time since the election, especially in regard to Theta’s Guest Pass feature. For those not familiar with this option, the Guest Pass is designed to allow Theta’s Investment Managers the opportunity to share their programs’ performance on the Theta database with prospective investors. You can think of it as a temporary one-Manager subscription.

It’s also a way for Theta’s Investment Managers to highlight their performance on a one-on-one basis without the prospective client having to become a Theta subscriber.

While Guest Passes are used all the time by Theta’s Managers, the period of time after the election has been especially busy. We expect Guest Pass activity to become even busier after the end of the month when November monthly performance will be published on the database. If you are not a Theta subscriber but are interested in a particular Investment Managers’ strategies, ask them to set you up for a Guest Pass. You’ll be glad you did.

Check out Theta’s Newest Investment Manager Additions

We have added more new strategies to the list of trackedmodels and have several more pending as we work to reconstruct their historical track records. Our newest additions are as follows:

Patrick, MBA, CPA, CFA, founder of Martin Investment Management, LLC in Evanston, Illinois has initiated tracking of two strategies. First is an international strategy named Tortue (French for tortoise) Capital™ and the other is a “Best Ideas” strategy also known as Growth with a Value Discipline. Theta Research has independently verified the actual track records of both the Tortue and Best Ideas strategies back to their common inception date in January of 2013.

Hunter Young, founder of Chicago-based DelTheta Capital, has submitted the Talton Volatility Advantage strategy for tracking. Theta Research has independently verified the actual track record of this strategy back to its inception date in December of 2012.

A Heart-Felt Thanks from Theta Research

Those of you who have communicated with us via e-mail often see us say “thanks for your business” at the end of our messages. It’s our way of letting you know that we truly appreciate all of our Investment Managers and Subscribers, as well as those who have signed up for this Theta News blog. It’s also consistent with our belief
that thanks should be expressed all year, and not just around the official Thanksgiving Day remembrances.

Think of how pleasant it would be if everyone expressed thanks toward others as they should all year long.

Here’s hoping that you have the happiest of Thanksgiving celebrations and that you spread your thanks throughout the coming year. Who knows, you may just get a blessing out of it.

Theta Research

Henry Rohlfs, Technical Director

Mike Posey, Marketing Director

Posted by MPosey on 11/21 at 03:51 PM in Company News • (0) CommentsPermalink

More New Strategies Plus News from NAAIM

The advantage of being able to reconstruct and verify historical track records has not been lost on a new crop of Investment Managers. Following are three new managers to Theta as well as an existing Manager with a new strategy:

J. Stuart Kruse, CFA, MBA, CEO and Founder of Kruse Asset Management is a new Theta Manager based in Chicago, IL. Stuart’s strategy is known as the KAM Quantitative Value Portfolio, or QVP for short. Theta Research has independently verified the KAM QVP track record back to its inception in May of 2007.

Another new Investment Manager is James P. O’Mealia, founder of Sunnymeath Asset Management, Inc. of Red Bank, NJ. Sunnymeath has enlisted Theta to track its All-Cap Value Equity model. Theta has documented and verified Sunnymeath’s strategy back to its inception in April of 2012.

Douglas S. MacKay, CFA and William F. (Bill) Hoover are principals of Broadleaf Partners, LLC in Hudson, OH. Broadleaf has submitted its Growth Equity Portfolio for tracking by Theta Research. Theta has reconstructed and verified the Growth Equity Portfolio track record back to its inception of March 1, 2010.

Current Theta Investment Manager, Brian Boughner, co-founder of Parallel Financial Partners has added another strategy to be tracked by Theta. The Value Plus Strategy is a new model and Theta has established tracking as of its inception date of September of 2016.

NAAIM Announces its 2016 Outlook Conference -

The Impact of Technology on Marketing and Trading

The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) will hold its 2016 Outlook Conference on November 14 – 15 at the Dallas/Fort Worth Airport Marriott. November will be here faster than we know it. And with it will come a new president-elect, new congressional leaders and a host of other factors that could affect markets in 2017. Now is the time to consider those factors and what technology you may need to use just to keep up. Welcome to Outlook 2016, your place to come together with other leaders in the Investment Advisor community to tackle these tough questions - together. Information and

Registration information for the NAAIM Outlook Conference.

Posted by MPosey on 09/27 at 02:36 PM in Company News • (0) CommentsPermalink

How to Find Actual Long-Term Track Records

The stock market’s volatility in 2016 has underscored the need for actively managed investment strategies in a diversified portfolio. In this issue of Theta News, we will introduce both an active strategy with more than ten years of actual track record as well as a new strategy that has been recently developed by an existing Theta Research Investment Manager.

Speaking of long-term strategies, are you having a hard time finding managed account strategies with actual track records going back more than ten years? If so, you’ll be happy to know that there are more than two-dozen actively managed investment strategies on the Theta database with actual track records going back more than 10 years. And the list is growing all the time. While the buy-and-hold crowd claims that it’s impossible to beat the market over time, many of these strategies have done just that by employing active management strategies through the years.

Another benefit of Theta Research is that we can often reconstruct long-term historical track records. Some Managers with long-term track records have not had the advantage of being tracked and verified since their inception. In many cases, Theta Research can reconstruct an actual track record using third-party brokerage or custodial statements. MDP Associates, highlighted below, is an excellent example of this advantage. MDP joined Theta in August of this year but had an actual track record going back to October of 2002.

If you are an Investment Manager with a long-term track record that has not been independently verified, give us a call at (512) 628-5201, Option #1 to see if we can document your hard work. On the other hand, if you are an Investment Manager seeking out long-term performers, the Theta Research database may be just what you’re looking for. Just go to the Theta website at www.thetaresearch.com and follow the instructions for subscribing to the Theta database. I think you’ll be glad you did.

Another New Strategy From an Existing Theta Investment Manager:

Existing Theta Investment Managers Marty Kerns and Parker Binion of Kerns Capital Management in Houston, Texas have initiated tracking of their newest strategy, the KCM Valarian Strategies – Equity Exposure. This model is the latest in the KCM Valarian series of managed accounts and has been tracked by Theta Research back to its original inception date of May 1, 2016.

A New Investment Manager Joins the Theta Database:

New Investment Manager, Mark Pankin, Ph.D, founder of MDP Associates in Arlington, Virginia, has initiated tracking of his NDX Trading strategy. As mentioned above, Theta Research has independently documented and verified the actual performance of this model back to its original inception date of October 1, 2002.

Posted by MPosey on 09/01 at 04:02 PM in Company News • (0) CommentsPermalink

Doubting Dalbar and More Strategies

Doubting DALBAR

Every year, Dalbar, Inc updates its Qualified Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB) Study. Just like clockwork, this study shows that, in general, the average equity and bond investor receives a return far lower than that of their benchmark indexes. The apparent reason, at least according to Dalbar, is that investors tend to switch from fund to fund chasing returns, too often buying high and selling low.

As you might suspect, the buy-and-hold crowd loves this Study, saying that it proves the value of passive investing. In Dalbar’s world, simply investing in a low-cost index fund buying and holding it no matter what is the “smart” thing to do. Dalbar has produced and updated this study since 1994 without much pushback, at least not until now.

In a recent article entitled, The Fallacy behind Investor versus Fund Returns (and why DALBAR is dead wrong), mathematician and economist, Michael Edesses takes on the Dalbar QAIB Study and challenges its buy-and-hold conventional wisdom. According to Edesses, “…there is no way to determine if investors underperform the mutual funds they own, either because of bad timing or for any other reason.”

For many years, the QAIB Study has been used to call market timing and other active investment strategies into question. “Better to sit and take whatever the market throws at you rather than time the market,” they say. Edesess’ analysis, on the other hand, says that there will always be a substantial difference between investor and index returns, but that it’s impossible to tell how much, if any, of this difference is attributable to poor market timing by investors.

This article is a must-read for anyone who actively manages portfolios on their own or on behalf of clients. While you may not agree with all of Edesess’ claims, the article is important because it calls into question a bit of conventional wisdom that has been accepted as gospel since 1994. Of course, the buy-and-hold crowd will not let the QAIB Study go gently into that good night, but we now know that the math doesn’t necessarily support their favored conclusion.

Announcing More Strategies Being Now Being Tracked by Theta

Existing Investment Managers Marty Kerns and Parker Binion of Kerns Capital Management have added the KCM Valarian Four Seasons strategy. Theta Research has verified the track record of the Four Seasons Strategy back to its original inception date of April 1, 2016.

Another existing Investment Manager, Dr. Gary Harloff of Harloff Capital Management, has added two more strategies under his University Beta Strategies™ series. The new strategies are US Dollar and Fully Diversified, bringing the total number of Dr. Harloff’s tracked strategies to ten. Theta Research began tracking these strategies as of their original inception dates in June and July of this year.

New Investment Manager, David T. Bush, Managing Member and CIO of ALPHATATIVE, LLC. Located in Beavercreek, Ohio has initiated tracking of his award-winning Stratversify® Strategy. This model recently won the National Association of Investment Managers (NAAIM) “Shark Tank” Competition as well as BattleFin’s “Sharpe Ratio Shootout.” Theta Research has verified this strategy’s actual performance back to its original inception date of March 20, 2011.

Posted by MPosey on 08/02 at 03:45 PM in Company News • (0) CommentsPermalink

More New Managers and a Trip to Seattle

In This Edition of Theta News:

* Theta Research is featured at Puget Sound MTA Chapter meeting.

* Theta Research Announces Recent New Manager and Model

* Refer an Active Manager to Theta Research

Theta is Featured at the Puget Sound Chapter of the Market Technicians Association (MTA):

On June 16th, Mike Posey, Theta Research’s Marketing Director was the featured speaker at the Puget Sound MTA Chapter meeting. In this presentation, Mike shared his insight on the due diligence process drawn from his more than 16 years of finding, evaluating and marketing managed accounts.

Using prior MTA presentations as a springboard, Mike focused on why it is important for Investment Managers to have a track record consisting of actual, verified returns. He also discussed the inherent limitations of backtesting from a due diligence standpoint and why it’s especially important for early-stage Investment Managers to document their performance in real-time trading.

Announcing the Addition of New Manager and Models:

Dr. Gary Harloff, current Theta Investment Manager and founder of Harloff Capital Management, has expanded his University Beta Strategies by adding the Emerging Markets - Equity model. This brings Dr. Harloff’s total number of tracked accounts to eight. However, the Emerging Market and other University Beta strategies recently added by Dr. Harloff just began trading, so they will not show up on the Theta website until they have three months of track record.

The Investor Zone Team, has initiated tracking of its Long/Short Growth Strategy. The Investor Zone Team is a signal developer and the tracking account will show how those signals should have performed in actual trading. Theta Research has verified the actual performance of this model back to its inception of January 1, 2016.

Do You Know an Investment Manager That Should be Listed on Theta’s Database?

Investment Managers are always seeking to find ways to attract the attention of individual investors, institutions and other Investment Advisors. This is especially true among those looking for strategies that seek to manage risks and provide uncorrelated returns. As Theta continues to grow, our focus on actively managed strategies is an attractive and low-cost way to not only document actual performance, but also have it verified by an independent third party.

If you come across any active investment managers or signal developers who could use some market exposure, send them our way. Just have them call Mike Posey at (512) 826-5553, send an e-mail to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) or contact us through our online contact form. If you prefer, you can also get in touch with Mike and he will make the initial contact.

Posted by MPosey on 06/21 at 04:39 PM in Company News • (0) CommentsPermalink

Theta Research Announces the Addition of More Actively Managed Strategies

It’s been a busy few weeks here at Theta Research since the NAAIM Uncommon Knowledge Conference. We have added seven new strategies to the list of tracked models, one with a track record going back to 1992. These strategies have come from new Investment Managers as well as new strategies from existing Managers. Included in that number are the following:

Models Added by Existing Theta Investment Managers

Dr. Gary Harloff, current Investment Manager and founder of Harloff Capital Management, announces the expansion of his University Beta Strategies, adding the Equity, High-Yield Bond and Government Bond models. This brings Harloff’s total number of tracked accounts to seven. All of these latest strategies are new and do not yet have three months of track record.

Another current Theta Investment Manager, Ryan Redfern, ChFC, owner and CIO of Shadowridge Asset Management, LLC has added a model named SDW Core 403(b) (mod-aggr) Strategy. Theta has established tracking of this model as of its inception date of October 1, 2013.

One of our newest Investment Managers, Carbon Beach Asset Management has added its Carbon Beach Concentrated Deep Value Strategy. This model will not appear on the public website due to its being limited to Accredited Investors. However, qualified investors and investment professionals may access this strategy via Theta’s Guest Pass by contacting Colin Macintosh or Toby Carlisle.

New Investment Managers Added to the Theta Database:

New Investment Manager, Steve Rumsey, founder and CIO of Optimus Advisory Group, has submitted his Tactical High-Yield Bond strategy for tracking. Theta Research has independently documented the track record of this model back to its original inception date of November 1, 2013.

Bruce P. DeLaurentis, founder of Kensington Analytics, LLC has submitted his High-Yield Bond strategy for tracking. This strategy’s track record has been independently verified by Theta Research back to its original inception date of January 1, 1992, making it the longest track record currently found on Theta’s database.

Posted by MPosey on 06/01 at 05:46 PM in Company News • (0) CommentsPermalink

New Resources Available on Theta’s Website

…But First, a New Investment Manager Joins Theta Research

Michael Kieffer, Founder and Portfolio Manager of Kieffer Capital, LLC introduces the Covered Options Investment Strategy. Theta Research has verified the actual performance of this model back to its inception date of 01/31/2013.

Theta Research Radio Interview

Theta’s Marketing Director, Mike Posey, was featured in an interview on Strategic Investor Radio. Conducting the Interview was Charley Wright, a 30-year veteran in the investment industry and is the Host of Strategic Investor Radio.

Charley is a Fee-Only Investment Advisor with Partnervest Advisor Services, LLC and focuses on strategies designed to protect asset values in declining markets while capturing gains in rising markets. In other words, Charley’s professional focus is on the kind of active investment managers you’ll find on the Theta Research database.

The podcast was carried on OC Talk Radio, located in the heart of Orange County, California and was originally aired in 2015. However, you can now find a recorded version of Mike’s interview on the Theta Research home page.

Education Webinar Featuring Theta Research

Theta Research was also featured in an educational webinar sponsored by the Market Technicians Association (MTA). The MTA Educational Web Series consists of hour-long webcast seminars featuring recognized industry professionals and are hosted several times each month.

In his presentation entitled, “The Importance of Actual Returns in the Due Diligence Process” Mike Posey discussed some of the perils and pitfalls of using hypothetical returns when marketing model portfolios, and how they can be of only limited use in the due diligence process. He also shared lessons learned from his more than 16 years in evaluating and marketing third-party investment managers

Mike’s comments were based closely on the Theta Research white paper of the same title. As with the radio interview, a copy of this webcast can be found on the Theta Research home page

Posted by MPosey on 04/26 at 02:53 PM in Company News • (0) CommentsPermalink
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