Gary D. Halbert has been writing his Forecasts & Trends Newsletter, (now in e-letter format) for over 30 years. During that time, Gary has shared his keen insights on economic, market and even political events that can and do affect your pocketbook. With the market reaching new record highs on a regular basis, investors are reasonably concerned about how long the current bull market rally can last. Just as in the late 1990s and then again in the mid 2000s, there is no shortage of “experts” offering opinions on the answer to that question. Unfortunately, many of these opinions come from sources that do not have the depth of knowledge and experience that Gary brings to the table. If you like what you see in Gary’s writing, we’ll provide a link for you to sign up for Gary’s e-letter, free of charge, at the end of Gary’s article. All the best, Mike

Are the Markets Due for a Correction? What to Do in an Uncertain World

After the election of Donald Trump as President, the markets surged and continued to increase after he was sworn into office. In the Spring, however, the market rally took a breather as it became more evident that neither the repeal and replacement of Obamacare nor tax cuts nor infrastructure spending will be a cakewalk for the Republicans. In addition, interest rates are going up. Add to that the foreign policy crisis with Russia and Syria, and rapidly escalating tensions with North Korea. Uncertain man The stress on the stock and bond markets is increasing quickly and many are worried about the possibility of an imminent downward correction (or worse), especially since we haven’t had a major correction in many years. What happens in the coming months is far from certain and many investors are very nervous. Wouldn’t it be nice to have some strategies in your portfolio that are not highly correlated to the stock and bond markets, just in case the worst happens? Fortunately, there are some options I’ll share with you today. But first, let’s look at the increasing risks the markets are currently facing. Reality of Governing Sets In One of President Trump and the Republicans’ big promises was the repeal and replacement of Obamacare. As we all know, their attempts to do so have failed miserably. It’s very possible they will not be able to come together and agree on an alternative approach. So what does that mean for the economy? Many analysts agree Obamacare will eventually implode if nothing is done to fix it. Healthcare is a big part of the economy, and a failure of this magnitude could have a significant impact on the markets. In addition, perhaps one of the biggest reasons for the stock market’s surge since Trump’s election is the promised cuts to corporate and individual tax rates. Keep in mind that part of the reason the GOP started with the repeal and replacement of Obamacare is that they were planning to use some of the savings from their healthcare changes to help pay for the tax cuts. With no such savings now available, it will make passing tax cuts even more difficult. Republican leaders had hoped to have tax cuts finished by August. Now many are saying that’s just not realistic anymore. It could be the fall or even later before anything is done on this. Republicans disagree on a number of things, including the size of the cuts, how to pay for them and some more controversial proposals like the Border Adjustment Tax. US Leaders The future of the infrastructure spending bill is also uncertain. This would pump billions into the economy on so-called “shovel ready projects.” It remains to be seen though if the Republicans can come up with something that can pass both Houses of Congress. These promises are a big part of the reason for the market’s surge after Trump was elected. Failure to accomplish any of these could impact the markets in a negative way. Interest Rates Are Going Up In December and then again in March, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. They also indicated they plan to have at least two more rate hikes this year, and potentially three next year. Rising interest rates increase the costs for companies to borrow money. Many existing loans are tied to the LIBOR so when rates increase, so do the costs for companies to service their debt. Furthermore, the Fed recently warned about weakening credit demand and tightening lending standards, which will make it more difficult to get a loan. Companies often depend on loans to fund expansion projects. When the availability of credit declines, it is usually not good for the stock and bond markets. And let’s not forget that the US has a $20 trillion national debt. When interest rates go up, so does the cost to service this debt. This makes even less money available for government spending projects. Hotspots Around the Globe In addition, there are a number of global hotspots that could weigh on the markets. The limited US strike on Syria has caused concerns over escalating US military involvement in Syria and elsewhere. It has also put a big strain on US-Russia relations, which were already at a low-point. Any type of direct US and Russian military conflict could have a very negative impact on the markets. It could also weigh heavily on the energy markets. Conflicts in the Middle East often push energy prices higher. And don’t forget Russia has vast energy resources. Rising energy prices often are not good for the markets. Kim North Korea is also a major hotspot, given that they have a nuclear weapons arsenal and a nutty leader who might just be crazy enough to use them. Any confrontation between the US and North Korea could escalate very quickly, and the result could be very negative for the stock and bond markets. Add to that the strain it would put on US-China relations, which would likely impact trade. President Trump has sharply criticized China for unfair trade practices, and any problems between the US and China, especially with growing tensions with North Korea, could lead to a trade war with negative global implications. Remember China has the second largest economy in the world. Are We Past Due for a Correction? The US has just completed its eighth consecutive year of economic growth. For reference, the average post-World War II recovery period averaged just 61 months, roughly five years. Private jobs have grown for 85 consecutive months. The markets recently reached all-time highs. The last really significant market correction was during the 2007-2009 time-frame. Many believe the markets are past due for a correction. This recovery is getting long in the tooth, so it may not take much for it to turn lower, perhaps significantly. Remember, the S&P 500 lost over 50% from 2007-2009. When the markets are at or near to all-time highs, and there is a great deal of uncertainty, they can be more susceptible to negative news or events. It often doesn’t take much to cause a big move in one direction or the other. Most everyone reading this understands how important it is to diversify your investment portfolio. With the fate of Obamacare and tax cuts unclear, interest rates rising, tensions increasing around the world and the stock markets at or near all-time highs, there is a great deal of uncertainty in 2017. This makes diversification even more important. Yet proper diversification today requires more than a passive buy-and-hold allocation to stocks and bonds, since they can both suffer when markets drop. It requires alternative investments that are not highly correlated to the stock and bond markets, ones that can potentially do well even if the markets drop. And if the markets keep going up, you want strategies that can still prosper. So what’s an investor to do? Investors Need Options and Theta Research Has Them In a nutshell, Theta Research tracks the actual performance of separate managed accounts traded by Investment Managers who employ tactical strategies. These model-based strategies are often based on quantitative methods designed to actively position portfolio assets where they can avoid much of the damage caused by a market correction. Some models even use inverse funds to “short” the markets during periods of high volatility. Once these actual returns have been documented, Theta Research also provides subscription services so that both individual investors and professionals can analyze and evaluate each manager’s performance. My RIA firm, Halbert Wealth Management, had been a Theta Research subscriber since its inception back in 1999. It not only serves as an important analytical resource for our due diligence efforts, but also as an important source of actively managed investment strategies that employ systematic trading models. Using Theta’s Professional Subscription, Advisors can produce detailed ranking reports over a wide range of time windows, allowing you to determine how the strategies performed in past market environments. The best part, however, is that every performance number published by Theta is based on the actual performance of a representative account. Theta publishes no backtested or other hypothetical performance information. Learn More About Theta’s Database of Actively Managed Investment Strategies Follow the link to learn more about Theta Research subscriptions and how you can use this resource to access top active Investment Managers. While there, you’ll even be able to run through a Demo of the system to better evaluate its functionality and capabilities. (Note that the Demo site does not have live data, but rather example returns you can use to evaluate the site.) By subscribing to Theta, you have access to a growing list of active investment managers, each with verified actual track records. In these days of market uncertainty, it’s important to know which managed accounts can both talk the talk and walk the walk of tactical model-based investment management. The active strategies tracked by Theta have the potential to do well, even if the markets drop. They also have the potential to do well if the markets continue to rise. Plus, they are often not highly correlated to the stock and bond markets and can help you diversify your portfolio away from traditional stocks and bonds. (Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.) If you have any questions or want to learn more about Theta Research, call Theta’s Marketing Director, Mike Posey at (512) 826-5553 or send him an e-mail at Mike@ThetaResearch.com. If you are worried that the stock markets are in nosebleed territory, and that the Fed is now seriously committed to raising interest rates significantly, you owe it to yourself to at least check out the active investment strategies tracked on Theta’s database. Thank you for your continued confidence, Gary D. Halbert Gary
Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.
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Posted by MPosey on 07-18-2017 in Company NewsPermalink
Theta is pleased to announce four new additions to our list of tracked models. As usual, some of these strategies come from existing Theta Managers while others have been submitted by Managers new to the Theta database. Before discussing the new programs, however, a “Happy Anniversary” wish is in order. Theta Research – 18 Years and Going Strong It seems hard to believe but this year marks the eighteenth anniversary of Theta Research. Established in 1999 by Roger Schreiner and Paul Montgomery, and later owned solely by Montgomery, Theta Research was acquired by the Gary Halbert in 2012 and moved to Austin, Texas. The Halberts are familiar figures in the wealth management industry, having pioneered public futures funds in the 1980s and 1990s. In 1996, Halbert Wealth Management (HWM), a Registered Investment Advisor firm was established by the Halberts and is where the relationship with Theta Research began. As an RIA, HWM knew that it is often difficult to find active Investment Managers among the thousands listed on various databases. Even more frustrating was the fact that performance figures in many of these databases are not independently verified. Instead, they rely on self-reporting, backtesting and other hypothetical gimmicks to show what a strategy’s performance might have been, not what it actually returned. HWM used the actual performance on Theta’s database as a resource to help evaluate Investment Managers who employ tactical strategies to enhance performance, manage risks, or both. Knowing that an Investment Manager’s actual performance had been third-party verified provided a big head start in HWM’s due diligence process. Mike Posey was chosen as Marketing Director of the new Theta while Henry Rohlfs was named its Technical Director. Together, they have expanded the range of services offered, enhanced Theta’s capabilities and grown in the number of subscribers and investment strategies being tracked. While much of the last few years of ownership has been dedicated to rebuilding the database and enhancing the software, we’re excited about the future. For Theta’s clients, it’s good to know that a valuable resource like Theta Research is still independently tracking the actual performance of Investment Managers and making the information available to those seeking actively managed investment strategies. Now, let’s explore some of the strategies that have most recently been added to Theta’s database: Models Added by Existing Investment Managers on Theta: Ted Lundgren, principal of Hg Capital Advisors in Houston, Texas is an existing Theta Manager. Ted has recently established tracking of his Behavioral Diversification strategy, a multi-manager approach. Theta has tracked and independently verified the actual performance of this model back to its inception of January 1, 2014. Existing Investment Manager, Christian J. Cyr, CPA, MBA, and Founder of Cyr Financial Wealth Advisors has established a new tracking account named the Dynamax 2X Strategy. As its name suggests, the Dynamax 2X strategy is a leveraged version of Cyr’s Dynamax 1X Strategy, which is also being tracked. Theta Research has independently documented and verified the track record of this model back to March 1, 2016. New Investment Managers Added to the Theta Database: Paul Glance, PhD, is founder and president of Glance Financial Advisors, LLC in Troy, MI, and a new Manager to Theta Research. Along with his son, Brian, Paul has established a tracking account for his Glance USO Strategy, a quantitative long/short energy sector strategy. Theta Research has independently verified the track record of this trading model back to January 1, 2017. Alpha Retirement Wealth in Gold River, CA is another one of our newest Investment Managers. Co-Founders Colbey Philbin and Matt Curtis have submitted their US RPI A+ Strategy, which is invested according to the US Risk Parity A+ Index, created by Mr. Philbin. Theta Research has independently documented and verified the track record of this model back to its inception date of January 1, 2016.
Posted by MPosey on 06-01-2017 in Company NewsPermalink
NAAIM Announces Winner of “Shark Tank” Competition The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) has announced the winner of its annual “Shark Tank” competition, held during its Uncommon Knowledge Conference in San Diego, CA. Since 2013, this unique challenge has allowed NAAIM Members to gain exposure to innovative ideas employing active management strategies, possibly leading to new business relationships.  Theta Research is pleased to announce the 2017 Shark Tank Competition winner is Mr. Rich Paul of Potomac Advisors, Inc. Rich won the competition with his EVO 1 Strategy, a long, inverse or cash tactical model using the Guggenheim/Rydex family of mutual funds. The EVO 1 Strategy’s actual track record has been independently verified by Theta Research back to its original inception date of June 1, 2002. As we have noted in the past, Investment Managers competing in NAAIM’s Shark Tank competition receive exposure to a room full of Advisors, many of which are seeking viable sub-advisory relationships. It’s an opportunity to describe the Manager’s investment approach to the markets answer questions posed by an audience of seasoned professionals. Theta Research has actively supported Shark Tank and has served on the NAAIM Shark Tank Committee since its inception. In fact, all previous Shark Tank winners currently have at least one strategy being tracked by Theta. To learn more about Potomac Advisors and the EVO1 Strategy, see your Theta subscription or, if you are not yet a subscriber, contact Rich and request a Theta “Guest Pass” to review his performance. Theta Adds Another New Strategy Ted Lundgren, Principal of Hg Capital Advisors, LLC in Houston, Texas has announced the addition of the Behavioral Diversification strategy to its models being tracked. This strategy uses proprietary algorithms to allocate among multiple tactical strategies. Theta has tracked and independently verified the actual performance of this model back to its inception of January 1, 2014. 
Posted by MPosey on 05-15-2017 in Company NewsPermalink
Theta is pleased to announce five new additions to our list of tracked models. Two of these strategies come from one Investment Manager new to Theta and three have been submitted by Managers who already have active tracking accounts on the Theta database. With that being said, I think it would be beneficial to provide a brief analysis of why multiple strategies from a single Manager is significant. The development of active investment management strategies is no small feat. Financial professionals who develop quantitative formulas and trading systems must not only have a keen sense of the interrelationships inherent in the markets, they must also they must also be students of investor behavior, especially during periods of extreme highs and lows in the markets. Most of all, however, active managers must have an abiding belief in the ability to maximize gains and/or minimize losses over and above what is available in a passive, buy-and-hold portfolio. Theta Research is built upon the idea that risk management is an attainable goal as evidenced by the actual performance of real-time trading accounts tracked in the Theta database. Since there is no single “Holy Grail” active investment strategy out there, most active managers build multiple systems designed to address one or more facet of the market, such as trading a specific asset class, moving to cash in down markets, or even long/short strategies based on one of the major stock market indices, etc. These systems also often include complex algorithms that incorporate trend following, rotational, mean reversion, momentum, technical analysis and a myriad of other techniques. In some cases, Managers combine their strategies with others of their own, or even of other Investment Managers to illustrate a composite portfolio. In this way, Managers can leverage their own knowledge and expertise with that of other sophisticated professionals. Theta Research makes it easy to illustrate such a composite portfolio as part of our Professional Subscription. Give us a call to learn more about this subscription feature. Now, let’s explore some of the strategies that have most recently been tracked by Theta: Models Added by Existing Investment Managers on Theta: Werner Keller, CFA of Keller Partners in Channel Islands, CA is an existing Theta Manager. Werner has recently established tracking of his Active Mega-Cap Strategy. While the Mega-Cap Strategy is new to us, it’s not a new concept. Theta has tracked and independently verified the actual performance of this model back to its inception of October 1, 2012. Another current Theta Investment Manager, David Daughtery, CFA, CFP, founder of Copperwynd Financial, LLC has added two new strategies. The Total Return Income Model began actual trading on April 1, 2015 while the Rotational Strategy began actual trading on December 1, 2014. Theta Research has independently verified the actual performance of these strategies back to their respective inception dates. New Investment Manager Added to the Theta Database: Our most recent Investment Manager addition is Christian J. Cyr, CPA, MBA, Founder of Cyr Financial Wealth Advisors. Chris has established tracking accounts for two strategies – Dynamax 1X and Dynamax Low Volatility. Theta Research has independently documented and verified the track records of these two models back to their common inception date of January 1, 2016.
Posted by MPosey on 04-25-2017 in Company NewsPermalink
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